Geopolitics Heats Up. Indonesia’s Eid Exodus Becomes a Test of Energy Resilience

We usually think of the Eid homecoming season (mudik) as an annual tradition: millions of people heading back to their hometowns, packed highways, overflowing rest stops, and a seasonal spike in fuel consumption. But this year, a broader context makes the moment feel a little different: the state of global geopolitics.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East between Iran and the Israel-US alliance have once again put a critical artery of global energy supply under the spotlight: the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran has stated that the strait remains open to international shipping, restricting access only to vessels linked to the US, Israel, and their allies, the dynamics in the region are enough to rattle global energy markets.

Adding to the pressure: global oil prices have already broken above USD 100 per barrel. At the same time, Indonesia is entering its highest fuel consumption period of the year, the Eid mudik season. Seen in this light, mudik can actually be read as a kind of “stress test” for national energy resilience. Fuel demand surges, mobility spikes, and all of this unfolds against a backdrop of a deeply unsettled global energy market.

The government appears to be taking this seriously. President Prabowo Subianto is reportedly considering a work-from-home (WFH) policy for select sectors, a measure aimed at reducing daily commuter traffic and easing fuel consumption in major cities. On the supply side, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia confirmed that national fuel stocks remain stable at around 23 days of reserves, and urged the public not to panic-buy. This communication matters: in many cases, panic itself can trigger distribution disruptions that wouldn’t otherwise occur.

Operationally, state energy company Pertamina is ramping up stock build-up, strengthening distribution along major mudik corridors, and ensuring adequate fuel availability in high-mobility areas.

Taken together, there’s an interesting combination of measures at play: supply stockpiling, mobility management, and public communication designed to maintain confidence.

Which means this year’s mudik is about more than just the journey home. It’s also a moment to see how well Indonesia’s energy system can absorb a demand surge while the world remains far from stable.

If fuel distribution holds steady through this period, that won’t just be a logistical win. It will be a signal that the national energy system is resilient enough to withstand global pressure.